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Indianapolis Colts
The Indianapolis Colts will enter the season in an unfamiliar position, without long time quarterback Peyton Manning in charge of the offense. Rookie Andrew Luck will struggle, but should be near the top of draft lists in rookie drafts. The Colts' running game will be led by the unspectacular duo of Donald Brown and Delone Carter. Bringing back Reggie Wayne will help Andrew Luck and the Colts offense, while Austin Collie will be a reliable option in the slot for Luck. Rookies Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen will compete for playing time at tight end, and should grow into a nice duo for the future.
Rookie Andrew Luck will be thrown into the Colts' starting lineup from day one. The number one pick in the NFL draft has all the tools to be a top flight starter in the NFL, but will go through some growing pains in his rookie season. Rookies are often drafted too early in fantasy leagues, so make sure you do not reach for Luck as anything more than a middle of the pack fantasy backup. If you play in a dynasty league that holds a rookie draft, Luck, Robert Griffin III, and Trent Richardson should be the first three rookies off the board. Luck is a great bet for the future, but do not overvalue him in fantasy redraft leagues this season.
Donald Brown will probably enter the 2012 season in a platoon with Delone Carter in the Colts backfield. The former Connecticut Huskie played a major role in the Colts backfield last season, but was not able to stand out as a future every down running back. Brown had a couple good games, but also mixed in very average games. Delone Carter will cut into Brown's production, and if he does not get off to a good start, he could be moved into a backup role before long.
Injury Status: Injured Reserve
Rookie Vick Ballard could be in the mix in the Colts backfield if Donald Brown or Delone Carter struggle to start the season. Brown and Carter have not been overly impressive when given the chance to play, so it is possible that Ballard will get an opportunity to see some action as early as this season. Despite his possible involvement in the Colts offense, Ballard should not be on fantasy radars at the moment.
Delone Carter is likely to be in the mix for a platoon role in the Colts backfield this season. With no clear cut lead back on the roster, the Colts will go with the hot hand on a week to week basis. Carter and Donald Brown will be the main two running backs in the Colts offense, but this is probably a situation that fantasy owners should avoid. If you are looking to take a flier on a Colts running back based on upside, Carter may be the better bet.
Mewelde Moore has a chance to serve as the Colts' third down back this season. If Donald Brown is unable to handle picking up the blitz, Moore may slide in to protect Andrew Luck and catch passes out of the backfield. Even if Moore is successful in overtaking Brown for this position, his lack of time on the field will make it unlikely that he makes any fantasy impact this season.
Reggie Wayne returns to the Colts as the lone offensive star from the Colt's glory days. The veteran wide receiver has a big name, but fantasy owners need to realize that despite Andrew Luck now running the Colts offense, Wayne will not put up the same numbers he did with Peyton Manning. The former Pro Bowler should be considered a low end WR2 or high end WR3 for the upcoming season. He should lead the Colts in targets and receiving yards.
Donnie Avery has the chance to surprise as the Colts' replacement for Pierre Garcon. Avery has the talent to be a good fantasy wide receiver, but he was unable to stay healthy in 2011; with the Colts offense likely to struggle in 2012, his prospects to be a major fantasy asset are not good. If Andrew Luck can develop quicker than expected (and Avery can stay healthy), he does have a slight chance to suprise as a fantasy receiver. Take a chance on Avery in the last round of your fantasy draft.
Rookie Ty Hilton is unlikely to play a major role in the Colts offense this season. The backup wide receiver will probably fit best in the slot, but with Austin Collie already locked into this role, Hilton probably will not see the field much as a rookie. Fantasy owners should look elsewhere for a late round wide receiver.
Rookie Coby Fleener could be a value pick as a high upside backup tight end this season, with the potential to be a fantasy starter in the future. Fleener and fellow rookie Dwayne Allen will both be key components in the Colts offense this season, but they will cut into each others production, making it unlikely that either will be a quality fantasy starter. Fleener should be the first tight end off the board in rookie drafts.
Rookie Dwayne Allen should play a role in the Colts offense this season, but likely not enough of a major role to make a fantasy impact. Allen being drafted by the Colts hurts his long term value, as Coby Fleener will likely be the Colts' main pass catching tight end in the future. Allen is still a top five rookie tight end for rookie drafts, but his upside is limited in Indianapolis.
Despite his stellar career, Adam Vinatieri is not a recommended fantasy this season. The best fantasy kickers play on high scoring offenses, something that the Colts do not have. Vinatieri can be left on the waiver wire (and if necessary can be a bye week fill-in), but is unlikely to have much more value than that this season.
The Colts defense is one of the worst fantasy units in the league. Under no circumstances should they be drafted in fantasy leagues. Even if you are drafting more than one defense, stay away from the Colts.
