Fantasy Fact or Fiction: Running Backs Over 30

Are RBs effective as they cross over into their 30s? Once again "Fantasy Fact or Fiction" gets the opportunity to explore a well speculated fantasy myth and whether this is something to take into consideration during your draft. There are 3 players that will start 2012 as fresh faced 30 year olds and 5 others that are working hard to prove they still have juice in the tank.

• Brandon Jacobs , SF (30)
• Cedric Benson , CIN (30)
• Michael Turner, ATL (30)
• Fred Jackson , BUF (31)
• Ronnie Brown, PHI (31)
• Willis McGahee, DEN (31)
• LaDainian Tomlinson, NYJ (33)
• Thomas Jones, KC (34)

Before I make predictions for the guys mentioned above, we need to establish a baseline of other players that reached this milestone and how they fared. For this analysis I want to look back at 20 inactive fantasy starters that were all draftable during their time and how they performed as they evolved into their thirties. Evaluations are simply assigned as either "Bad", "Good" or "Great".

Emmitt Smith: Great

Year	Age	Team	Games Started	Rushing Yds	Rushing TDs	Rec.	Receiving Yds.	Receiving TDs
1998	29	Cowboys	16	1332	13	27	175	2
1999	30	Cowboys	15	1397	11	27	119	2
2000	31	Cowboys	16	1203	9	11	79	0

Every rule has an exception or anomaly and Emmitt fits the bill. Turning 30 had no effect on his ability to perform (especially with over 1,500 all-purpose yards during the '99 season). He finished his career in Arizona and even at 35 he still rushed for over 900 yards and 9 TDs.

Ricky Watters: Great

Year	Age	Team	Games Started	Rushing Yds	Rushing TDs	Rec.	Receiving Yds.	Receiving TDs
1998	29	Seahawks	16	1239	9	52	373	0
1999	30	Seahawks	16	1210	5	40	387	2
2000	31	Seahawks	16	1242	7	63	613	2

Ricky spent his final 4 years in the NFL with Seattle and made the most of it. We're talking about a total of 4,009 rushing yards, 22 rushing TDs, 166 receptions and 1480 receiving yards. His body of work during the twilight of his career was better than his first 3 years in San Fran (23-25 years old) and his following 3 years in Philly (26-28 years old).

Jerome Bettis: Bad

Year	Age	Team	Games Started	Rushing Yds	Rushing TDs	Rec.	Receiving Yds.	Receiving TDs
2001	29	Steelers	11	1072	4	8	48	0
2002	30	Steelers	11	666	9	7	57	0
2003	31	Steelers	10	811	7	13	86	0

Bettis was a juggernaut from the beginning; from 1993 to 2001 he had (8) 1,000+ yard seasons and participated in 5 Pro Bowls. When Jerome turned 30 he never rushed for over 1,000 yards again, although in 2004 he did post a career high 13 TDs while only starting 6 games.

Antowain Smith: Bad

Year	Age	Team	Games Started	Rushing Yds	Rushing TDs	Rec.	Receiving Yds.	Receiving TDs
2001	29	Patriots	15	1157	12	19	192	1
2002	30	Patriots	15	982	6	31	243	2
2003	31	Patriots	6	642	3	14	92	0

Smith actually played until he was 33, but was his most productive during the '01 season rushing for a career high 1,157 yards. As you can see, once he crossed 30 he declined in production and durability.

Charlie Garner: Good

Year	Age	Team	Games Started	Rushing Yds	Rushing TDs	Rec.	Receiving Yds.	Receiving TDs
2001	29	Raiders	15	839	1	72	578	2
2002	30	Raiders	15	962	7	91	941	4
2003	31	Raiders	9	553	3	48	386	1

Garner killed it as a 30 year old and recorded 91 receptions, 1903 all-purpose yards and 11 TDs in '02. The following year he was still an impact player with 939 all-purpose yards, but also began breaking down and only started in 9 games.

Marshal Faulk: Bad

Year	Age	Team	Games Started	Rushing Yds	Rushing TDs	Rec.	Receiving Yds.	Receiving TDs
2002	29	Rams	10	953	8	80	537	2
2003	30	Rams	11	818	10	45	290	1
2004	31	Rams	14	774	3	50	310	1

It's hard to categorize Faulk as mediocre, but in this particular case he was. It's unnecessary to recap the previous 9 seasons before turning 30 (because we're all aware of his domination), but things changed in 2003. Although he grossed over 1,000 all-purpose yards at 30 and 31, it was still a decline to what we've always expected from him.

Curtis Martin: Great

Year	Age	Team	Games Started	Rushing Yds	Rushing TDs	Rec.	Receiving Yds.	Receiving TDs
2002	29	Jets	16	1094	7	49	362	0
2003	30	Jets	16	1308	2	42	262	0
2004	31	Jets	16	1697	12	41	245	2

Age did not slow Martin down and '04 was his best year in 11 seasons; career high in rushing yards (1,697) and attempts (371). He also made the Pro Bowl and was a 1^st Team All-NFL selectee.

Eddie George: Bad

Year	Age	Team	Games Started	Rushing Yds	Rushing TDs	Rec.	Receiving Yds.	Receiving TDs
2002	29	Titans	16	1165	12	36	255	2
2003	30	Titans	16	1031	5	22	163	0
2004	31	Cowboys	8	432	4	9	83	0

These were George's final 3 years in the NFL. He had an impressive year at 30 with close to 1,200 all-purpose yards, but it was the last time Eddie offered any fantasy relevance.

Corey Dillon: Good

Year	Age	Team	Games Started	Rushing Yds	Rushing TDs	Rec.	Receiving Yds.	Receiving TDs
2003	29	Bengals	11	541	2	11	71	0
2004	30	Patriots	14	1635	12	15	103	1
2005	31	Patriots	10	733	12	22	181	1

Bottom line, Dillon had his best year as a RB when he turned 30. He was given a second chance by Bill Belichick and proved that Cincinnati made a huge mistake letting him go. He also posted 13 TDs during the '05 season (31 years old) and another 13 TDs during his final season (32 years old) before retiring.

Priest Holmes: Good

Year	Age	Team	Games Started	Rushing Yds	Rushing TDs	Rec.	Receiving Yds.	Receiving TDs
2002	29	Chiefs	14	1615	21	70	672	3
2003	30	Chiefs	16	1420	27	74	690	0
2004	31	Chiefs	8	892	14	19	187	1

Priest saw a small decline in rushing yards when he turned 30, but it was offset by an increase in rushing TDs. He was on pace to repeat in '04 (31 years old) before his season was cut short due to injury, but during that 8 game span he put up a respectable 15 TDs and 1,079 all-purpose yards.

Stephen Davis: Bad

Year	Age	Team	Games Started	Rushing Yds	Rushing TDs	Rec.	Receiving Yds.	Receiving TDs
2003	29	Panthers	14	1444	8	14	159	0
2004	30	Panthers	2	92	0	2	32	0
2005	31	Panthers	11	549	12	5	45	0

Davis recorded a staggering 1,444 rushing yards at 29 and then (like Keyser Soze) he was gone. He only played in 2 games the following season and then had a small rebound in '05, but by this point it was too late. He lost his versatility, speed burst and durability once he turned 30.

Tiki Barber: Great

Year	Age	Team	Games Started	Rushing Yds	Rushing TDs	Rec.	Receiving Yds.	Receiving TDs
2004	29	Giants	14	1518	13	52	578	2
2005	30	Giants	16	1860	9	54	530	2
2006	31	Giants	16	1662	5	58	465	0

'05 was Tiki's career year with 2,390 all-purpose yards and the first time since 1998 he only fumbled the ball once; if you ever owned Barber then you know how big of a deal that was. He had another incredible year at 31, but then abruptly retired due to issues with Tom Coughlin. The Giants won the Super Bowl in '07 and Tiki was reminded that you shouldn't cut off your nose to spite your face.

Warrick Dunn: Good

Year	Age	Team	Games Started	Rushing Yds	Rushing TDs	Rec.	Receiving Yds.	Receiving TDs
2004	29	Falcons	16	1106	9	29	294	0
2005	30	Falcons	16	1416	3	29	220	1
2006	31	Falcons	16	1140	4	22	170	1

Is there anything bad to say about Dunn? No way! He's been a class act throughout his 12 year span and even as he got older he still brought the heat. Dunn had to reach 32 before he ever had a season with less than 1,000 all-purpose yards and had his best year when he turned 30.

Fred Taylor: Good

Year	Age	Team	Games Started	Rushing Yds	Rushing TDs	Rec.	Receiving Yds.	Receiving TDs
2005	29	Jaguars	11	787	3	13	83	0
2006	30	Jaguars	15	1146	5	23	242	1
2007	31	Jaguars	15	1202	5	9	58	0

'07 was a memorable year for Taylor; he earned a career high 5.4 Y/A, 1,260 all-purpose yards and finally his first invitation to a Pro Bowl. He was 31 years old.

Ricky Williams: Bad

Year	Age	Team	Games Started	Rushing Yds	Rushing TDs	Rec.	Receiving Yds.	Receiving TDs
2005	28	Dolphins	4	743	6	17	93	0
2007	30	Dolphins	0	15	0	0	0	0
2008	31	Dolphins	3	659	4	29	219	1

Ricky has always been an enigma, so it shouldn't be any surprise that the above snapshot is just as confusing. 2006 was the year Ricky took his sabbatical and when he reluctantly returned in '07 he played in 1 game and rushed for 15 yds on 6 carries. While most RBs have a lot of wear and tear as they get closer to 30, Ricky had relatively low mileage which helped him play in all 64 games from '08 to '11 before retiring.

Shaun Alexander: Bad

Year	Age	Team	Games Started	Rushing Yds	Rushing TDs	Rec.	Receiving Yds.	Receiving TDs
2006	29	Seahawks	10	896	7	12	48	0
2007	30	Seahawks	10	716	4	14	76	1
2008	31	Redskins	0	24	0	1	9	0

Alexander was at an all-time high in '05 with 28 total TDs, but then like a dying star he imploded into a black hole. He ended up finishing his final 3 years in the NFL playing a total of 20 games, scoring 12 total TDs on 1,769 all-purpose yards.

Edgerrin James: Bad

Year	Age	Team	Games Started	Rushing Yds	Rushing TDs	Rec.	Receiving Yds.	Receiving TDs
2007	29	Cardinals	16	1222	7	24	204	0
2008	30	Cardinals	7	514	3	12	85	0
2009	31	Seahawks	0	125	0	3	19	0

It sucked seeing James decline like this. I was such a fan when he played in Indy, but turning 30 was not kind. It would be easy to say that injury was the reason, but he did play in 13 games during '08 and had a career low 514 rushing yards. He was given a final chance in Seattle, but James had lost his Edge.

Deuce McAllister: Bad

Year	Age	Team	Games Started	Rushing Yds	Rushing TDs	Rec.	Receiving Yds.	Receiving TDs
2007	29	Saints	3	92	0	4	15	0
2008	30	Saints	6	418	5	18	128	1

It was game 3 of the '07 season when Deuce tore his ACL and finished the reminder on IR. He made an inspiring comeback the following year, but only started 6 games and lost carries to Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush -- eventually retiring as a Saint.

Brian Westbrook: Bad

Year	Age	Team	Games Started	Rushing Yds	Rushing TDs	Rec.	Receiving Yds.	Receiving TDs
2008	29	Eagles	14	936	9	54	402	5
2009	30	Eagles	7	274	1	25	181	1
2010	31	49ers	5	340	4	16	150	1

Once a PPR nightmare and top drafted RB, Westbrook became a casualty of age and concluded the '09 season with 2 TDs on 455 all-purpose yards through 8 games. Philly ended up cutting ties with Brian and sent him out west to be Gore's back-up. He got another chance to start in '10 when Gore was placed on IR with a fractured hip but didn't really impress.

Jamal Lewis: Bad

Year	Age	Team	Games Started	Rushing Yds	Rushing TDs	Rec.	Receiving Yds.	Receiving TDs
2008	29	Browns	16	1002	4	23	178	0
2009	30	Browns	8	500	0	8	88	0

Jamal's career finished at 30 and not on a high note. He was on pace to duplicate his '08 performance but suffered an injury that placed him on the IR.

Whew…that was longer than expected, thanks for sticking around. In the 20 players identified, 11 did worse as they entered into their 30s, 4 played well and only 5 did better than expected. My advice going into this year's draft is to lower your expectations on some and avoid taking others. Let's take a quick look at 2012's candidates and what they are up against.

Cedric Benson (30) – Benson is still a free agent and Cincinnati has moved on. They acquired Benjarvus Green-Ellis from the Patriots and also drafted Dan Herron from Ohio State. Avoid in all situations.

Brandon Jacobs (30) – Fresh off a Super Bowl victory and straight into a RBBC situation. Jacobs was traded to San Fran where he will be sharing the load with Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter and newly drafted 2^nd round pick LaMichael James. I can't imagine he'll get much playing time (except in possible go-line situations), but even then they now have Randy Moss to cut into those. Avoid in all situations.

Michael Tuner (30) – Still the #1 RB for the Falcons and is coming off a 1,508 all-purpose yard season. Turner will rank in the Top 10 among RBs, but Atlanta won't hesitate to reduce his carries if he struggles (especially with Jacquizz Rodgers waiting in the wings). The one plus about Turner going into this season is that he was limited to 301 attempts last year and played in all 16 games. Avoid drafting him until mid-2^nd round.

Fred Jackson (31) – Jackson was on pace for a career year but unfortunately broke his leg and concluded the season on IR. Jackson's leg has fully healed and he has been cleared to practice, making him a Top 15 RB going into 2012. I would take the gamble on Jackson for a few reasons. For one, a naturally healed broken leg is not as concerning as a surgically repaired MCL or ACL. Secondly, even though he's 31 this is only his 6^th season, and he has 817 rushing attempts during that span (low mileage). Finally, Buffalo didn't draft any RBs and CJ Spiller is better utilized as a receiving option than a power back. Fred isn't a risk and a solid late 2^nd round pick.

Ronnie Brown (31) – Brown is still a free agent after being released by the Eagles, plus I doubt the they will re-sign him seeing as they drafted Bryce Brown from K-State. Unless there is an emergency situation during training camp, no other team will be looking for Ronnie's services. Avoid in all situations.

Willis McGahee (31) – It's hard to hate on Willis because the guy never quits. Recovered from a torn ACL, PCL and MCL during the National Championship game and still had multiple 1,000 yard seasons for the Bills, Ravens and most recently Denver. Knowshon Moreno will more than likely start on the PUP list and Denver drafted Ronnie Hillman from San Diego State in the 3^rd round, leaving Willis as the most experienced and ready RB for Peyton Manning's new offense. Peyton will spread the ball around, alleviating some of the pressure Willis endured with Tebow as his QB last season. Draft McGahee as a #2 RB in a PPR league or a flex option in a non-PPR league.

LaDainian Tomlinson (33) – The Jets have moved on and drafted another RB (Terrance Ganaway) to add to an already deep bench of Greene, McKnight and Powell. LT had his least productive year in 2011 rushing for 280 yards and 1 TD and should be officially released sometime soon. I think it's time to say goodbye to one of the greatest RBs of our time. Avoid in all situations.

Thomas Jones (34) – Entering his 13^th season and probably the oldest RB that could be drafted. I have not seen any official word on what the Chiefs plan on doing with him, but the fact that Charles is set to return, they brought in Peyton Hillis, still hold Dexter McCluster in high regard and recently drafted Cyrus Gray from Texas A&M I doubt Jones will be playing in Arrowhead come September. Avoid in all situations.

RDM