Week 16: Sit 'Em
Sit'em articles can vary widely across fantasy websites. Some weeks you might see consistency among experts and other weeks you might not find one match between articles. Sit'em picks are focused on selecting usually solid players that are not worth starting in any given week. Circumstances might include match-up, injury watch, RBBC approach, passing vs. rushing focus, past performance, etc.
Sit'ems include some tough calls. We all have doubts each week and have to consider our options. It is a difficult decision to sit your stud or solid player, but occaisonally you must in order to win that match-up.
As we end the fantasy playoffs, it is more important than ever to make sure your line-up is in order. Now is the time to consider your options and make the best possible roster decisions.
Josh Freeman appeared on many fantasy lists as a starter over the past few weeks. He looked like a solid option against a reeling New Orleans defense, but went on to complete 26 of 47 pass attempts for just over 275 yards with four INTs and a fumble loss. The New Orleans defense should not have posed a significant issue for Freeman, yet he failed to perform against a weak pass defense. This week he faces a St. Louis defense that is ranked in the top 15 vs. the pass, but held the Minnesota passing attack to 131 yards this past week. Freeman's middle of the season surge seems to have dwindled and his performance of late does not warrant a fantasy playoff start. I figure he is good for 200-230 yards passing with one TD and two INTs this week.
In Week 15, Oakland finally won a game since Week 8. Palmer threw for 182 yards over 18 passes last week vs. Kansas City and did not throw a TD. The good news was Palmer did not throw an INT last week as he has thrown at least one each week every week except for Weeks 1 and 4. For many fantasy owners, Palmer has been a fairly consistent source of fantasy points this season. Of late, his performance has tailed off. This week he squares off vs. a tenth-ranked Carolina pass defense. Palmer has averaged about 18 fantasy points per game so far this season. In Week 16 he is projected to gain about 14 points. If Palmer is your final round playoff option I might be concerned. I think he will throw for about 225 yards with one TD and one INT this week.
Michael Turner's performance this season has been up and down. Just when Turner appears to be getting back on track, he surprises us with a significantly poor performance. If not for Turner's uncanny ability to find the end zone (which he has found each of the last five weeks), he would be of little fantasy value. Turner has not surpassed 83 rushing yards in six weeks. His average rushing yards per game over this six week period has been about 38 yards. In Week 16 he faces a Detroit defense that is ranked 13th vs. the run. This match-up might look appealing, but I caution starting Turner this week. He is likely good for a bout 40 rushing yards, but I think he will be kept out of the end zone and disappoint his owners. If you are hoping for more than 9-10 fantasy points, look elsewhere.
Nelson has sat out Green Bay's last two outings with a hamstring injury. It appears he may start this week vs. Tennessee. The coachig and training staff will not be sure about Nelson's status until later this week, but if he plays, he will likely be an option for your fantasy roster. Tennessee's pass defense is middle of the pack, allowing about an average of 23 points per week to opposing tight ends. This sounds appealing, but consider Nelson's stats. He has only recorded four double-digit fantasy weeks this season. Rodgers has targets and will spread the ball as needed. Watch Nelson's status, but do not expect much from him this week if he does start.
Vernon Davis has pretty much been a fantasy killer this season. In Week 15 he basically faced the lowest-ranked pass defense in the league in New England -- 31st against tight ends-- and he put up negligible fantasy points. He snagged one pass of a mere three targets for 10 yards. If you are considering Davis as an option this week vs. Seattle's top-ranked defense then I stroingly suggest you reconsider. Seattle allows a league low 5.6 fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Colin Kaepernick and the San Francisco offense are going to struggle this week and Davis is going to find himself in another low production outing. Davis missed his team's match-up with Seattle earlier this season, so we do not have any recent match stats to consider, but I would count on 2 receptions for less than 35 yards and no score. Keep Davis on your bench.