Week 15: PPR Watch
Caution - I've been waiting to see Wilson break out all year. After flashing some exciting ability in the pre-season, many owners believed Wilson would play a role sooner than week 15. So why the caution? First off, Wilson's big day came against the Saints. If you read this column then you already know they give up more yards on the ground than any team in the league. Second, his gaudy 7.7 YPC doesn't seem quite as impressive when you figure his 52 yard run came with 5 minutes left in a game the Giants were already winning 45-27. Take that run away, and it is a moderate 4.0 YPC on the day. Wilson had no catches in the blowout, and we don't yet know the extent that Bradshaw will play. Atlanta is still a pretty soft matchup, but they're playing at home in what should be a tightly contested game. So let me make this simple. If Bradshaw is active, I'm not playing Wilson. If Wilson is getting the full load then he's a high upside back with big play potential, but he's also high risk with no proven track record and seemingly little PPR value. I see him as a flex play at best. Don't sit the starters that got you to the dance.
Avoid - It is unlikely you need Jason Avant in your lineup. If you've survived to the second round of the fantasy playoffs, now isn't the time to overthink it. With DeSean Jackson out, I don't think Avant's 7 catches for 133 yards was a fluke, but it isn't very repeatable either. Owners have chased this kind of day from Avant for years. He's a capable wide receiver who can take advantage of a good matchup, but like Scheffler above, he's a known quantity in the NFL and has no place trying to carry your team to a fantasy championship in PPR. Keep in mind, Tampa allows the most fantasy points to WRs, and has allowed 300 more receiving yards to the position than any defense in the NFL. Cincinnati is not the Bucs. The Bengals have one of the best secondaries in football. Avant probably has a 4-5 catch and 50 yards ceiling this week. Save yourself the frustration.