Week 16: Game Previews

For most of you out there this week brings your championship game, meaning the end of your fantasy season is near. Some leagues continue on through until the end of the NFL season (as mine does), but more and more fantasy owners are finding that playoff-bound teams choose to "rest" their star players, i.e. those who end up on fantasy rosters, especially if the team's seeding is secured.

New England, for example, is assured of having homefield advantage for all of its playoff games. The Indianapolis Colts, as well, know that they are guaranteed the No. 2 AFC spot, meaning they get at least the divisional game at home before most likely heading off to Foxboro for the AFC Championship game.

Beyond those teams, though, no other team knows for certain where it will be seeded in the upcoming postseason. Keep in mind that just because the coach or a skill player says something along the lines of, "Business as usual," for the remaining two games, that's not always the case. Two years ago, after the Colts were assured of their playoff seeding, Peyton Manning played one series in the final game of the Colts' season, completing one of two passes.

If you have made it this far, you're no dummy and you will keep on top of your team and the players' outlook. Just like every other factor to consider when deciding on your starting lineup - weather, injuries, matchups, etc. - you should add this new one into the mix.

Oh, and don't forget to double-check the starters on the NFL teams. In my column last week, I wrote that Brian Griese would be a favorable start at QB for Chicago against a weak Minnesota pass defense. Of course, earlier in the week the Bears had decided that Kyle Orton, not Griese, would get the call on Monday night, a decision that I had read and then let slip my mind when compiling my notes for writing. So, check and then re-check, just to be sure. And good luck in your game.

Pittsburgh at St. Louis
Jacksonville's running backs pummeled the Steelers' No. 1 overall defense last week, gaining 224 total yards on the ground, led by Fred Taylor. (Yeah, yeah, I remember what I wrote about Taylor and his chances.) In the dome, in front of the home fans and a pseudo-national audience (this game is on the NFL Network), Steven Jackson no doubt wants to make a statement and prove that he is not the bust from the first part of the season. Pittsburgh needs this game to stay ahead of Cleveland - wait, did I read that right? Cleveland?! - in the AFC North. They can attack through the air or on the ground against a weak Rams' defense.

Pittsburgh
Must start: Willie Parker
Favorable situation: Ben Roethlisberger; Hines Ward; Santonio Holmes; Heath Miller
Unfavorable situation: Not enough passes to go around for Nate Washington to be considered
Don't start: Any other player

St. Louis
Must start: Jackson; Torry Holt
Favorable situation: Marc Bulger, although it is disappointing news to him that Steelers' safety Anthony Smith is being benched; Drew Bennett and Isaac Bruce combined for 9 catches and 137 yards last week - I can't strongly recommend starting either one, but Pittsburgh's secondary is susceptible to the long ball.
Unfavorable situation: None
Don't start: Any other player

Dallas at Carolina
Terrell Owens has told Jessica Simpson, Tony Romo's girlfriend, to stay away from the Dallas Cowboys' games. What, are they in middle school now? If I am a Philadelphia defensive player I would take offense to suggestions that Romo's crappy outing had anything to do with him playing in front of the woman he is currently bonking. How about the fact that you continue to drop passes, T.O.? Hmmmm, maybe you should stay from the Dallas offense and see if it gets better. The Panthers showed a flicker of a pulse against Seattle last week and surely want it to continue against Dallas.

Dallas
Must start: Romo, unless his thumb injury worsens (or if he gets a paper cut from passing notes in class to Jessica: "Don't listen to my friend, T.O. By the way, do you like me, check 'yes' or 'no.'"); Marion Barber; Owens (obviously you are not going to bench him but know that he has just five catches for 58 yards in the past two games); Jason Witten
Favorable situation: None
Unfavorable situation: Patrick Crayton's usefulness as a fantasy player seems to have faded.
Don't start: Any other player

Carolina
Must start: None
Favorable situation: Steve Smith is slowly making his way back up the starting chart
Unfavorable situation: Matt Moore is not worthy of a start in fantasy; the RBs, DeAngelo Williams and DeShaun Foster, face the 4th-ranked run defense.
Don't start: Any other player

Cleveland at Cincinnati
The Browns have more to play for in this game than the Bengals, but I don't expect Cincinnati to just roll over, since this is one of those "rivalry" games. Just because one team is out of the running for the playoffs doesn't mean that they won't want to knock out another team, if they can, especially one that plays in the same state. From a fantasy standpoint, if the weather forecast holds true - rain, snow showers, and strong winds - this one could end up being another low-scoring contest. Check on the weather in Cincinnati on Sunday morning before you make your final decisions.

Cleveland
Must start: Jamal Lewis, bad weather or not
Favorable situation: Derek Anderson, Braylon Edwards, and Kellen Winslow are decent starts in decent weather; otherwise, bump them down a spot.
Unfavorable situation: None
Don't start: Any other player

Cincinnati
Must start: None
Favorable situation: Carson Palmer, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and Chad Johnson would normally be in the Must Start category against the 32nd-ranked defense, but again, follow the weather and make changes accordingly; Rudi Johnson has been ruled out for this game and it looks as though Kenny Watson will be called upon to slog through the nastiness.
Unfavorable situation: Chris Henry had one catch (albeit for a TD) last week but that's not much on which to pin your hopes.
Don't start: Any other player