Week 15: Game Previews

If you are reading this column that almost certainly means you made your league playoffs. Congratulations, if that is the case. (Some leagues hold consolation playoffs for the teams that didn't make the real playoffs; if you are reading for that reason, good luck in taking down the other losers in your league.)

Realistically, if you have made it this far, you managed your team well throughout the entire season. So, one bit of advice: don't go crazy trying to rearrange your entire starting lineup and don't overanalyze the situation.

You have obviously figured out matchups and which players work best together. If you are in a league that gives points for RB receptions, for example, you know which RB tandem gives you the best output for all possible points. Same goes for your WR corps.

Two weeks ago, in Tampa Bay's win over New Orleans, the Bucs faced a fourth-and-one on the Saints' 28-yard-line with 2 minutes left in the game, trailing by three points. Instead of attempting a game-tying field goal, Jon Gruden decided to go for it and he called the team's bread-and-butter play, 96 Power King. Earnest Graham gained two yards, the Bucs drove on for the winning TD, and Gruden looks like a genius. After the game, he basically said that if the play didn't work and the Bucs had lost, he would still feel good about calling the play because it has worked for them all season long.

The point? Go with your best plays, the guys who have done it for you all season long. If they don't work out, it just wasn't your year. Good luck.

Denver at Houston
The Broncos exploded against Kansas City, led not by Travis Henry at RB, but Selvin Young. Reports out of Denver are that Young will likely get the majority of the carries as the season winds down for Denver. The Texans beat the Bucs with Sage Rosenfels turning in a surprise performance, as he led them to 21 points. Keep in mind, however, that the Texans didn't really move the ball very much on TB; they had just one sustained drive of 66 yards: one score came on kickoff return and the two other scoring drives totaled 40 yards, as Houston capitalized on turnovers in Bucs territory.

Denver
Must start: Young; Brandon Marshall
Favorable situation: Jay Cutler; Tony Scheffler
Unfavorable situation: None
Don't start: Any other player

Houston
Must start: Andre Johnson
Favorable situation: Rosenfels; Darius Walker - but check on Ron Dayne's status before making the final decision; Owen Daniels
Unfavorable situation: None
Don't start: Any other player

Cincinnati at San Francisco
This is the first of three consecutive Saturday night games, so don't get caught having your players from those games on the bench - that is about the worst way to lose a fantasy playoff game and you will be mocked for it throughout the entire off-season, as you should. The NFL banked on this game being a matchup between possible playoff contenders but both teams have tanked. The fact that the NFL Network is airing this game probably won't be an issue among the fans who complained when they couldn't watch Green Bay and Dallas tangle, but wait until they find out that the New England Patriots could be playing for their unbeaten season on the same, mostly unavailable, network. Oh yeah, from a fantasy perspective this game should offer some good stats considering both teams are in the bottom third over overall defense.

Cincinnati
Must start: Carson Palmer; Rudi Johnson; T.J. Houshmanzadeh; Chad Johnson
Favorable situation: None
Unfavorable situation: None
Don't start: Any other player

San Francisco
Must start: Frank Gore
Favorable situation: None
Unfavorable situation: Shaun Hill has been in the league for six years and saw real life action in a regular season game for the first time last week - if you can figure out how he will do in his first-ever start, more power to you; at least the Bengals have a weak pass defense.
Don't start: Any other player, especially the WRs and Vernon Davis because you have no idea how Hill will perform.

Arizona at New Orleans
Both teams have slim hopes of making the playoffs and it wouldn't be surprising to see Drew Brees and Kurt Warner come out and sling the ball all over the Superdome - both pass defenses are in the bottom third of the rankings.

Arizona
Must start: Larry Fitzgerald
Favorable situation: Warner - yes, of course those five INTs last week are a concern but the Saints likely won't achieve that same feat; Bryant Johnson, if Anquan Boldin sits out again.
Unfavorable situation: Edgerrin James has been barely above average the past few weeks; even if Boldin gets the green light to start, do you really want to put your playoff hopes on a guy who is one stubbed toe from going back to the bench?
Don't start: Any other player

New Orleans
Must start: Brees; Marques Colston
Favorable situation: Aaron Stecker
Unfavorable situation: David Patten had seven receptions for 83 yards and no TDs in the four games prior to last week's stat line of nine catches, 122 yards and a score - remember you consistency over the flash-in-the-pan kind of guys this late in the season.
Don't start: Any other player