Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week 11 of the NFL season...

These fantasy musings do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com, but just a solo fantasy writer with too much time on his hands because the heated arguments earlier this week about why Bill Belichick was right to have gone for it have died down...

Last week: 9-6 straight, 9-6 spread

Overall: 96-50 straight; 76-67-1 spread

Home team in CAPS

CAROLINA 23 (-3) Miami 16: Hate starting the week with a loss. All I can say is that every time I pick the Panthers to win a game, I must push all thoughts of Jake Delhomme out of my head beforehand because in the end I am always shocked that I sided with that guy...

JACKSONVILLE 30 (-8) Buffalo 17: Don't look now but the Jags, the only team with a winning record that has had scored fewer points than they have allowed, will be 6-4 after this win. MJD is in line for another monster game going up against the Bills 32nd ranked run defense and Mike Sims-Walker keeps the party going with yet another long score...Far from the only reason the Bills season has come unraveled, but their offense has not looked the same since Marshawn Lynch took over for Fred Jackson as the primary running back. Jackson was more involved last week and while it didn't prevent another loss, I think it could be the start of getting this backfield closer to a 50-50 or at least 60-40 split. Anything to keep the ball out of Ryan Fitzpatrick's hands.

Pittsburgh 28 KANSAS CITY 20 (+10): Yes, the suspension of Dwayne Bowe is a big loss to the Chiefs already punchless offense, but Chris Chambers has the look of someone ready to go on an Antonio Bryant circa 2008 type run. Keep him active as a WR3 this week even against the Steelers' rugged secondary as the Chiefs will likely go pass-heavy once the run game is swallowed up by the Steel Curtain...Still not convinced that Rashard Mendenhall is the second coming of Franco Harris or anything, but he has done well against the slate of bottom feeders the Steelers have gone up against since he took over the starting gig. Expect a lot of downhill running in this one as Mendenhall scores twice, including a 30+ yarder, part of his 22-for-117 day.

Indianapolis 27 (-1) BALTIMORE 23: This seems like yet another trap game and in most cases, I would side with the hungry Ravens, especially after their less than impressive win over the Browns. However, don't mess with Peyton Manning. The Colts will eventually lose, just not sure it is this week...Austin Collie has lost that loving feeling with the end zone, being held out without a touchdown after scores in three straight games. Still, he has caught at least six passes in two of the last three weeks. As the Ravens and others begin to focus more on the suddenly scoring Pierre Garcon, Collie will hit pay-dirt, starting this week. Consider Collie as a WR3 against the Ravens' beatable secondary.

DETROIT 24 (-3.5) Cleveland 14: The Browns were sooooo bad on Monday night that I would take the Lions even if the line were a touchdown. Seriously, we have seen teams get old or simply struggle to find talent, but has there ever been a quicker dismantling of a once-viable unit than what the Browns did to their offense this season?...Calvin Johnson and Kevin Smith are the only strong starts in this game. Jamal Lewis should have more holes to run through than normal and an argument can be made to start either defense if you are lacking at that spot.

NY GIANTS 27 (-6.5) Atlanta 20: Sign me up for the one dominant team with a struggling offense that has talented players and is coming off a bye angle. Factor in that the Falcons defense ranks 26th against the run and 28th against the pass and any of your Giants, especially Brandon Jacobs, Steve Smith and Eli Manning, are worthy plays this week...Despite facing the depleted Giants secondary, I still would have a hard time starting Matt Ryan after his recent run of less than impressive fantasy numbers. Assuming you have a comparable option (Garrard, Flacco) on your roster or can pick up a player with a strong matchup (Vince Young), I'd let Matty Ice cool his heels on your fantasy bench for another week.

GREEN BAY 24 (-6.5) San Francisco 16: The Packers as a group went all in last week in a must-win scenario against the Cowboys. One win may not spur a long winning streak, but I have been a Packers believer since the start of the year and Aaron Rodgers remains on fire so I'm sticking with them...Mike Singletary has the Niners on the right path, but the offense does not have enough firepower, at least with the improved but still below average Alex Smith, to compete with the high-scoring squads.

MINNESOTA 31 (-10.5) Seattle 17: Sidney Rice is the real deal and Adrian Peterson is unreal. Nothing that happens this week will change those thoughts. While AP racks up 120+ yards and a score on the ground, Rice does the same, though this score comes on a red zone target. Percy Harvin scores, though not sure if by land, air or special teams, while Chester Taylor gets into the action with a garbage-time touchdown...Justin Forsett was a hot pickup this week, but he will do more as a receiver (40+ yards) than on the ground (12-for-27) against the Williams Wall.

DALLAS 26 Washington 18 (+11): Ok, this game is either going to the final moments or the Cowboys pound their division rival. It all comes down to whether their Week 10 win over the Broncos propels the Redskins out of the NFL basement level and simply in with the also-rans. Long term, no, but against their rival they summon up just enough chutzpah (i.e. Ladell Betts again racks up over 100 total yards) to keep it close...of course the Redskins defense was getting torched before the Chris Simms extinguisher threw cold water all over the Broncos chances. Do not expect Tony Romo to do the same, as he finds Miles Austin and yes, Jason Witten for scores while Nick Folk lashes four field goals to secure the win.

New Orleans 34 (-11) TAMPA BAY 17: Trying to guess which Saints players will be the featured target each week has been as confounding as understanding how Counting Crows lead singer Adam Duritz still pulls in hot chicks. All we are prepared to say this week is that the Saints Olly Olly Oxen Free offense should have no problem scoring against the Bucs 29th ranked defense...

Arizona 34 (-9) ST. LOUIS 20: Kudos to the Rams for mustering up all the energy they could to stay within a touchdown of the Saints. Of course the realization of just how truly bad they are came when all the pundits and fans alike gushed at the close, yet still losing result. Teams that bad do not sustain even mediocrity for two weeks straight. Plus, who doesn't think Kurt Warner wants to hop back into Doc Brown's DeLorean and go a little "Greatest Show on Turf" in front of his former fan base. Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald top 80 yards plus score, while Beanie Wells continues to establish himself with 16 carries for 68 yards and a goal line touchdown...Donnie Avery is the one non-SJax bright spot for the Rams and with their second half likely turning into a pass, pass, pass attack in an attempt to stay close, the hot trending play continues from Avery.

NEW ENGLAND 27 NY Jets 20 (+10.5): Even with the Patriots about to move into "expletive " mode following their Sunday night meltdown (the blowing of the lead, not the going for it on 4th), the Jets have shown they are not afraid of this offensive juggernaut. Jerricho Cotchery has another solid outing with 75+ yards and a score and CB Darrelle Revis will hound Randy Moss, but Tom Brady and Wes Welker run circles around the rest of the Jets secondary and the Pats defense does not wilt against the rookie QB...

As for last week, here is all I will say...Imagine you are the Pats before the game starts and you are presented with a hypothetical, but the exact situation they ended up with, including the ball potentially going back to the great Peyton Manning. Then you ask your entire team, franchise, fan base and beat writers this question - which side of the ball do you want deciding the game for you? Does anyone really think the answer wouldn't be Tom Brady and the offense?

It is the emotion that messes with perspective in the heat of the moment. Would I have had the balls to go for it? Probably not. But that is more about my resolve and not wanting to look the fool than it is the intellectual decision to go for it (and keep the ball away from Peyton, period), which I cannot see how one could not at least understand, even if at the same time not feel frisky enough to actually make that call.

Cincinnati 20 OAKLAND 12 (+9.5): There is no hotter team then the Bengals, but look for a bit of a letdown after back-to-back division wins against serious competition. Cedric Benson is sounding iffy at best to play and Chad Ochocinco will see a lot of Nnamdi Asomugha, but Carson Palmer will still pick his spots and hits Lav Coles and Andre Caldwell for scores. Plus, as mentioned in previous posts, this is the first of the Bengals three week run against the NFL's worst, so their defense is a strong play...Bruce Gradkowski gets the start for the Raiders, but this QB switch does little to help them actually score. More yards in the passing game, yes, but not enough suddenly to use any of their offensive players more than I have to.

San Diego at DENVER: There is currently no line on thsi gamebecause no matter how much Denver fans pray, it is not looking good for Kyle Orton this week and you know what means. Orton may still not be Jay Cutler in the eyes of some, but Chris Simms was not even JaMarcus Russell when he subbed in last week. If Orton plays, use your Broncos per normal, but if it's Phil's little boy taking snaps, only using Knowshon Moreno would not make me bite off all my finger nails. I'll be taking the Chargers, even giving points if Simms starts...

Philadelphia 24 (-3) CHICAGO 20: The likely official start of the LeSean McCoy era begins in a game where the Eagles are damn close to must-win mode after two straight setbacks. With the expectation of a handful of breathtaking plays out of the backfield, consider McCoy a RB2 against a Bears defense ranked 21st in the league, though Andy Reid's inability to call a balanced offense limits his fantasy potential for now...For my thoughts on Jay Cutler, see Matt Ryan above. I would rank Cutler ahead of Ryan due his aggressive nature, but that is the same trait that has turned the former Bronco QB into a turnover machine in the red zone. Hard to see him shaking out of that mode against the ultra-aggressive Eagles defense, but Matt Forte and Greg Olsen bail Cutler out enough to help him post modest fantasy numbers.

Houston 28 Tennessee 24 (+4.5): A sneakily good MNF matchup, one that I will be watching with great interest with Chris Johnson, Andre Johnson and Matt Schaub going in the same league. CJ may have been overly optimistic when he said the Titans were going to close the season 10-0, but these are not the same Titans we saw get steamrolled earlier this season. There have been major improvements on both sides of the ball, but unless the NFL's leading rusher breaks off a few more long scores, I fear they will not have enough firepower to keep up with the Texans offense...The Ryan Moats-Steve Slaton debate rages on, but I would look to avoid both against a steady Titans run defense. If I had to pick, I see Slaton being more effective in the passing game than Moats on the ground.

Survivor Picks: These are my personal picks each week for my various (cough, cough) pools

Week 11 - Jacksonville (This is my least confident call in weeks, but I'll take my chances against a team (Buffalo) with a new coach and new QB. For the faint of heart, Minnesota, New Orleans and Pittsburgh are fine if you can still use them)

Week 10 - Minnesota (Obviously taking the Purple People Eaters against the toothless Lions isn't a tough call. Not sure I have the guts to pick the Dolphins. For those who don't mind going on the road, take the Saints)

Week 9 - Atlanta (A very sketchy week. Falcons matchup not ideal, playing a top-5 defense and coming off a bye, but better than taking Seahawks, Jaguars or Packers on the road)

Week 8 - Chicago (Colts are good if available. Chargers are ok, but hard to trust the Bolts and it is a division game)

Week 7 - Indianapolis (the Colts and Pats are the only worthy options this week, even with the road and neutral sites)

Week 6 - Green Bay (Jacksonville against the Rams is the gutsier call, but another week of strong options)

Week 5 - Philadelphia (though there are waaaaaay to many good options this week so everyone "should" advance)

Week 4 - San Francisco (Chicago is a close second)

Week 3 - Baltimore

Week 2 - Washington, Green Bay (and one pool goes by the wayside)

Week 1 - New Orleans, Baltimore

Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week 10 of the NFL season...

These fantasy musings do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com, but just a solo fantasy writer with too much time on his hand as he no longer has to waste energy this week trying to catch an errant throw from Jay Cutler...

Last week: 9-4 straight, 9-4 spread (sidebar - hit the EXACT score in the Pats 27-17 win over Fins)

Overall: 85-44 straight; 67-61-1 spread

Home team in CAPS

NY JETS 20 Jacksonville 14 (-7): Mike Sims-Walker has become virtually matchup proof, but the combination of swirling Meadowlands winds and Jets CB Darrelle Revis means owners with comparable stud options should look elsewhere this week...Doesn't it seem just like yesterday that the Rookie of the Year trophy engravers were making sure they knew how to spell Mark Sanchez. Now the daily buzz surrounding the former USC stud - at least outside NYC - has dropped off to "whatever happened to so-and-so levels". That could change after having a bye week to get a better rapport with stud receivers Braylon Edwards and Jerricho Cotchery before facing the Jags 25th ranked pass defense. Still, Sanchez makes for only as low-end bye week option, but the receivers are worthy WR2/3 plays.

Denver 23 (-3.5) WASHINGTON 10: Can't say that this is a must win for the 6-2 Broncos, but they need a strong outing to silence the doubters after getting drubbed the last two weeks. No better elixir than the inept Redskins, though the Broncos offense may still continue to sputter against the NFL's sixth-ranked defense. Expect a spread the wealth type attack from the Josh McDaniels game planned offense...With the injured Clinton Portis joining Chris Cooley on the sideline, the Redskins offense is virtually deprived of all fantasy relevance. The solid but not spectacular Ladell Betts may not even be able to take full advantage of this week's starting assignment with his own injury, making his Week 10 RB2/Flex status come into question.

PITTSBURGH 24 Cincinnati 19 (+7): Hmmm, seven points? Last week the Bengals were getting +3 at home despite a 5-2 mark. Now after thrashing the Ravens, the Carson Palmer's are still not getting much love, though I agree with those that think the Steelers are the top NFL team right now. Both defenses will make big plays and Big Ben gets the best of the QB battle, but gimme the points in this division clash.

TENNESSEE 24 (-7) Buffalo 13: Something is odd when a team that was winless just two games is favored by a TD over a 3-5 squad, but the Titans are hot! Get on board while you can...I know that the TO faithful will want to roll the dice and stick him back in their lineup against the Titans 32nd ranked pass defense. Sorry, not buying it. Tennessee's secondary is healthier than it has been and has looked much improved the last two weeks. The Bills are coming off a bye week, but unless that allowed doctors to insert an aggression chip into Trent Edwards mind, Owens and Lee Evans still will not see enough down field looks to warrant fantasy relevance...Chris Johnson, having been on my fantasy roster two straight years (thank you keeper league!), is easily my fav fantasy player of all-time, surpassing the two-year run I had Clinton Portis when he was a youngin with the Broncos or the 50-TD season from Brady. (The Week 15 snowstorm tainted my love of that season, sigh). With my birthday coming up, hoping someone hooks a brotha up with a CJ 28. It would be even better to have for this week when Johnson runs wild again.

*** 11/14 UPDATE - Another reason to avoid Owens; According to Bills coach Dick Jauron, Owens is "still struggling" with a hip injury that has caused him to miss the last two days of practice. Owens is still a good bet to play/start, but becomes a more risky play and a player that needs to be watched Sunday AM for owners still planning in using him.

CAROLINA 24 (+2) Atlanta 21: This is the game Steve Smith owners have been waiting for; seven receptions, 137 yards, two scores...According to the Matchup Analyzer, do not expect Roddy White to match those numbers against a Panthers secondary that is allowing only 15.5 ppg to wide receivers.

MINNESOTA 38 (16.5) Detroit 17: Everyone knows to start Adrian Peterson every week and other Vikes like Brett Favre, Ryan Longwell, Sidney Rice, Visanthe Shiancoe and the defense are almost there most weeks. Against the Lions, you can add Chester Taylor, Percy Harvin, Cris Carter, Ahmad Rashad, Chuck Foreman and Tommy Kramer to the list in what should be a blowout...Calvin Johnson is one of the players that could dramatically alter the remainder of the fantasy season. The debate all of his owners are having right now (which is similar to those of Jason Witten, Brian Westbrook and Anquan Boldin owners) is whether he will rebound to be that top tier WR you drafted or if the enormity of the Lions situation (plus his injury) will simply be too much to overcome. I fall in the former camp, but I would also move him for surer options likes Hines Ward or Donald Driver at this point.

New Orleans 38 (-13.5) ST. LOUIS 16: The random pick of which Saints receiver other than Marques Colston has a big week is...Jeremy Shockey. Simply put, the Rams have had issues covering tight ends all season. Also, Shockey found the end zone in Week One, then it took him four weeks to score again. Since then, it has been another three weeks of touchdown free play. I smell a trend...The biggest benefit of the Rams for fantasy owners is to have your defense play against them. Their remaining schedule is chock full of squads (Ariz, Sea, Chi, Tenn, Hous) that are potentially in your league's free agent pool as we speak...

MIAMI 27 (-10) Tampa Bay 13: Ronnie and Ricky should be wildcating all over a Bucs defense that is allowing 163 rush yards a game and no team is as run-oriented as the Dolphins are right now...I actually feel a little bad for Josh Freeman. His three-TD performance in his first start only served to raise unrealistic expectations, especially among those owners that rushed out to sign him this week. That thud-like sound you will hear in Southern Florida Sunday will be after the Dolphins defense brings the Freeman faithful back to reality, turning the rook over four times in the loss...

OAKLAND 16 (-1.5) Kansas City 13: I feel that just writing this sentence is too much coverage for this abomination of a game. Even if I was compelled to start Dwayne Bowe, Justin Fargas and Matt Cassel this week, I still would rather watch a "Wings" marathon than this game.

ARIZONA 30 (-8.5) Seattle 24: The Jekyll and Hyde Cards will remain as such on defense, but Kurt Warner and crew will take care of business on their side of the ball against a leaky Seahawks secondary. Larry Fitzgerald may not get 13 receptions like he did in their Week six meeting, but another 100 yards, one touchdown outing is likely to occur.

Philadelphia 27 (+1.5) SAN DIEGO 23: These two squads are almost mirror images of one another in that both tease at times with their championship level play only to follow it up with a no-show effort the following week. The Eagles are the one's coming off a downer of a game, even though they actually outplayed the Cowboys for most of that 20-16 loss. Brian Westbrook is listed as probable for the game, but the Donovan McNabb-to-Brent Celek connection will be the primary source of the Eagles offense. Antonio Gates will get his against the Eagles beat-up linebacking group, but the lack of a running game means Philip Rivers will see much of this game from the seat of his pants as the Eagles fly in with blitz after blitz.

GREEN BAY 31 (+3) Dallas 27: The must win moniker is overused in sports, but not this week in Cheese-head land. The NFC North crown is already slipping away and a loss this week, especially to another contending team, would put the Packers in a huge hole. The good news is Cowboys QB Tony Romo, who is on a good roll for sure. comes back to his home state. Romo is the kind of QB that tries a little too hard to be the man in such spots and the Packers defense takes advantage with three picks. Aaron Rodgers takes another beating, but still throws for at least two scores for the seventh straight game.

New England 24 (+3) INDIANAPOLIS 23: Key the game - can the Dwight Freeney-led pass rush get enough heat on Tom Brady so the Golden Boy does not have time to pick apart the Colts inexperienced secondary. Freeney and Robert Mathis add to their sack totals, but Brady and Wes Welker put on a clinic and you know it wouldn't be a prime time game without a long score from Randy Moss.

Baltimore 27 (-10.5) CLEVELAND 10: The team formally known as the Cleveland Browns travel back to play against the current Browns squad. The beat down they put on Brady Quinn and company will serve as a painful remainder to the Dawg Pound of what might have been. Ray Rice posts another 120+ total yards, Derrick Mason hauls in eight grabs for 93 yards and Ed Reed scores. Josh Cribbs will once again be the only Browns scoring player worth talking about after he takes a kick return back to the house.

(*** Thursday Night Pick - San Francisco 20 (-3) Chicago 16)

Survivor Picks: These are my personal picks each week for my various (cough, cough) pools

Week 10 - Minnesota (Obviously taking the Purple People Eaters against the toothless Lions isn't a tough call. Not sure I have the guts to pick the Dolphins. For those who don't mind going on the road, take the Saints)

Week 9 - Atlanta (A very sketchy week. Falcons matchup not ideal, playing a top-5 defense and coming off a bye, but better than taking Seahawks, Jaguars or Packers on the road)

Week 8 - Chicago (Colts are good if available. Chargers are ok, but hard to trust the Bolts and it is a division game)

Week 7 - Indianapolis (the Colts and Pats are the only worthy options this week, even with the road and neutral sites)

Week 6 - Green Bay (Jacksonville against the Rams is the gutsier call, but another week of strong options)

Week 5 - Philadelphia (though there are waaaaaay to many good options this week so everyone "should" advance)

Week 4 - San Francisco (Chicago is a close second)

Week 3 - Baltimore

Week 2 - Washington, Green Bay (and one pool goes by the wayside)

Week 1 - New Orleans, Baltimore

This week's podcast, which focused on the commonly used Week 10 fantasy trade deadline and the best/worst player and team matchups in the pivotal weeks 14-16, was so chock full of info that it ran well beyond regulation time. While I assume (sorry, clearing my throat) everyone will listen to the show in its entirety via ITunes, I decided to provide a cliff notes version of the episode. The take below is largely my own, but you can hear additional insight from FFToolbox.com writers Rob Warner and Chris Weeks on the podcast.

Since the trade deadline clock is ticking, let's not waste time on me writing some detailed, pithy intro, especially since I have not yet had my morning coffee. That is not a good scene for anyone involved...In general, please note that we are not focusing on weekly studs like Peyton Manning, Chris Johnson and Randy Moss, but instead on those mix and match options or even some players that have been solid, but face a daunting schedule in the final weeks. While matchups cannot dictate exactly how you set your lineup, they can help determine which side of the fence you land on a certain player and these notes should provide a look forward into some of the more promising or challenging decisions that lie ahead for fantasy owners. How one handles their trade deadline planning could make the difference between that light at the end of the fantasy tunnel being the shine coming off your soon-to-be won trophy or the fast moving train running straight at your squad.

Best Team schedules: Cardinals, Bengals, Seahawks - No team has a better across the board schedule the rest of the way then the Cardinals, who have a top-5 schedule at QB, RB, WR, TE, K and defense according to the FFToolbox Strength of Schedule guide, my favorite tool on the site by the way. Obviously Larry Fitzgerald is a must have, but virtually all of their starters (outside of TE Ben Patrick) are worth acquiring and starting most weeks.

Worst Team schedules: Eagles, Bucs, Giants - The trusty strength of schedule meter has the Giants RB and WR schedules ranked 31st the rest of the way with Eli Manning's SOS coming in at 27th among quarterbacks. Despite their recent struggles, the Giants clearly have talented players on offense and I expect Tom Coughlin to get them back on the right track in terms of NFL wins and losses. However, fantasy expectations should be tamped down based on their schedule and with a certain amount of uncertainty going forward. Don't do anything drastic, but considering dealing your Giants starters or start looking for more promising trade options. Now.

Quarterback

Good: Kurt Warner - Ok, raise your hand if you thought this former league MVP would still be upright by Week 10...put your hand down Brenda. I am talking to the non-believers, the ones who saw a 38-year old with a history of injuries and questioned whether they should get target Warner in their fantasy draft and hope for a repeat of his inspired 2008 season. Though Warner has not performed at a Pro Bowl level, he has been a solid, low-end QB1 play, ranking 11th in PPG average among QB's. But that was then; the future, one that for now does not involve a walker, looks quite promising for the Cards QB. The schedule highlights: Week 15, at the Lions, who are currently 31st against the pass and have allowed the second most TD passes. That is followed by the Rams, Warner's former team, who sit currently 22nd against the pass. Oh, Warner owners, one last thing. Warner's present health not withstanding, do not forget to add Matt Leinart as a handcuff down the stretch. (This goes for virtually any of your stud players as having the backup will let you sleep better at night in a post-trade deadline world)

Other passers: Week nine struggles aside, Joe Flacco remains a rotational fantasy option with QB1 potential (Week 14 - LIons; Week 16 - Bears) in the right matchups...Already worthy of a roster spot, now Alex Smith is making a claim to be a strong QB2 or spot starter. Not many passers will have a better stretch of games (Week 13 - @ Seahawks; Week 14 - Cardinals, 29th vs. the pass; Week 16 - Lions) with which to close out the season...Purely for Golden Domer lovers and those scared to death to have only Jake Delhomme or Trent Edwards as their backup QB; Brady Quinn faces the Chiefs on the road in Week 15 and hosts the Raiders in Week 16. Yes, take that final recommendation with a dumpster sized grain of salt amount.

Bad: Matt Ryan - Of the preseason top 10-12 QB's, the one that passer that currently is not sniffing that tier now is Ryan, the Falcons wunderkind second-year star. We can debate Ryan's real life value to the Falcons franchise in another forum, but fantasy owners have not been pleased of late. Over his last four starts, Ryan has thrown for less than 200 yards three times while totaling six TDP and eight INT in that overall stretch. That is too large of a sampling too simply dismiss as a minor blip and gives legit concern to his fantasy owners, who will therefore be none to pleased with the reigning Rookie of the Year's closing schedule; during week's 13-16, the Falcons play the Eagles, Saints, @ Jets, Bills, all of whom currently sit among the top half of NFL defenses against the pass. (But Ben, three of those games are at home. Surely that has to be good news for Matty Ice, right?). Ryan has thrown eight of his 13 touchdowns in his four home games, but is averaging 61 yards less per game (192) than generated in his four starts away from the Georgia Dome.

Other passers: Several big name passers (Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Tony Romo) have among the worst statistical matchups the rest of the way, but should remain entrenched in your lineup. On the other hand, Kyle Orton's early season fantasy success is unlikely to be duplicated down the stretch with three top-13 pass defenses (@ Colts, Raiders, @ Eagles) to face in Weeks 14-16.

Running Back

Good: Pierre Thomas - The Saints backfield has been a confounding and confusing scenario for fantasy owners this year, with the emergence of Mike Bell and the almost shunning of Reggie Bush. Also Pierre Thomas mostly failed to live up to his early draft status due to early injuries and the surprising play of Bell, but appears to have re-taken over the reins as the top dog with 181 total yards and three touchdowns the last two weeks (In comparison, Bell had only five carries for 17 yards last week). Not only do I expect that trend to continue, but the schedule sets up nicely for the Saints lead runner the rest of the way; two games vs. the Bucs 30th ranked run defense, including in the climatic Week 16, plus matchups with the Rams (27th) and Falcons (24th). As my colleague Rob Warner stated on the podcast, Thomas may be the one attainable RB1/2 option out there because of the first half uncertainty, but the schedule and that Saints offense make with him pursuing.

Other runners: The return of Sammy Morris is the "x" factor in the Patriots backfield, but Laurence Maroney has been a solid producer since getting the bulk of the touches of late. Now check out the teams he will be running against in weeks 14-16; Panthers (23rd), @ Bills (32nd), Jaguars (22nd). The quantity of carries likely keeps Maroney out of becoming a true RB2 each week, but the lack of quality opponents in the closing games should more than make up for it.

Bad: Ryan Grant - Solid, not spectacular is a perfect way to describe Grant's 2009 season. In eight games, Grant has failed to reach double digit scoring only once in standard scoring leagues, but only scored over 15 points once this season with five games in the 10-12 point range. Considering there is no real threat in the wings to steal carries, Grant may be able to continue squeeze out similar numbers, but the odds are stacked against him from providing fantasy owners with anything more based on the Packers closing schedule. Over weeks 11-16, Grant faces the Niners (Week 11, 4th ranked rush defense), Ravens (Week 13, 7th), Steelers (Week 15, 1st) and Seahawks (Week 16, 11th). Even the two promising weeks (Week 12 @ Lions, Week 14 @ Bears) are on the road against division foes. Considering the Week 15 matchup against the frightening Steel Curtain defense makes Grant almost unusable, it makes sense to troll the Packers starting RB out in trade talks to see if you can snag a comparable RB with a much, much better schedule.

Other runners: DeAngelo Williams dominated the second half of the 2008 fantasy season and has been on fire over the last few weeks, making him virtually schedule proof. The same however cannot be said for his tag-team partner Jonathan Stewart, who is looking no better than a spot-flex play with the Panthers playing @ Jets (Week 12), @ Pats (14), Vikings (15) and @ Giants (16) to close the season.

Wide Receiver

Good: Kevin Walter - There is little to tout about Walter's first half, but his targets likely will rise with the absence of TE Owen Daniels. Those extra targets should be put to good use in Weeks 13-16 with games at the Jaguars (21st against the pass), Seahawks (17th), Rams (20th) and Dolphins (29th). That schedule also makes Texans third receiver and likely free agent Jacoby Jones worth a look in deeper leagues.

Other catchers: It has been easier to predict what will happen on "Lost" than figure out which Saints wide receiver other than Marques Colston is the one to use each week. The wealth will likely continued to be spread, but Robert Meachem may be on the verge of become a more viable WR3 weekly option with seven receptions for 145 yards and a score over the last two weeks. The burner is posting a sizzling 22.8 yards per grab and that could mean a big pay day with closing games against the Rams (Week 11, 20th against the pass), Bucs (Weeks 12 and 16 against a unit that has allowed the third most TDP) and Falcons (28th).

Bad: Steve Smith/Hakeem Nicks/Mario Manningham: Bad enough the Giants enter their bye week on a four-game losing streak, but their struggling aerial attack faces a who's who of top pass defenses the rest of the way. In Weeks 12-16, the Giants are @ Broncos (8th against the pass), Cowboys, Eagles (14th), @ Redskins (1st) and @ Panthers (6th). Smith should catch enough passes to remain more than viable in PPR leagues, but expect decreased yardage and touchdown numbers across the board.

Other catchers: Already talked about why Matt Ryan could struggle the rest of the way and obviously that effects his star receiver Roddy White, who has been more "blah" then "yea!" most weeks this season. When you look inside White's 40-570-6 numbers through eight games, one notes that most of production (318 yards, three TDs) came in only two games. White did not generate more than 57 yards and the other six games. Playing against those top passing defenses during fantasy crunch time does not seem like a cure-all.

Tight End

Good: Vernon Davis - Who would have guessed that the insertion of Alex Smith into the Niners lineup would actually be a good thing for their passing game. Huh. One person might have been Davis, who clearly has great chemistry with Smith, having racked up four touchdowns over 10 quarters since the Niners made the QB change and he hauled in 10 passes for 102 yards last week alone. Among tight ends, Davis has a top-5 schedule going forward, with tasty games against the Jags (Week 12), @ Seahawks (13), Cardinals (14), @ Eagles (15) and Lions (16) so there is no reason to think the former Maryland Terrapin's production will slow down anytime soon.

Bad: Kellen Winslow - The simple truth is that unless you drafted say Brent Celek or Heath Miller as a backup and thus have two capable tight ends on your roster, there is almost no reason to sit your fantasy starter due to the lack of free agent options available. However, one top level talent that teams should consider unloading before the trading deadline is Winslow, who faces the 31st toughest schedule among TE's the rest of the way. I know Josh Freeman just posted nice numbers in his first start, but I won't be comfortable with him throwing to any fantasy player until we see how he does on the road (starting this week at the Dolphins) and how opposing teams defense the rook now that there actual game film to study. If you can move Winslow for a comparable TE option that has a more known quantity at QB throwing him the ball like the aforementioned Miller or Visanthe Shiancoe, make the deal.

Defense:

Good: Bengals - While the real life Bengals defense has garnered attention from football pundits with the inspired play so far, the fantasy world has not quite taken note, largely to the consistent unit not truly having a breakout performance. That all could change starting in Week 11 when the Bengals play on the road at the Raiders followed by back-to-back home games against the lowly Browns and Lions. Tack on a Week 16 tilt against the Chiefs and the Bengals are a virtual one-stop fantasy defense shop going forward.

Other defenses: No defense has a better Week 15-16 schedule than the Cardinals, with a road game at the Lions followed by a home tilt against the Rams. Nuff said... For those that still have work to do before those late matchups can become relevant, consider the Dolphins. Over the next three weeks they face Josh Freeman, Jake Delhomme and Trent Edwards...if you plan on going with a "defense of the week" strategy, also note the Titans (Week 14 vs. Rams, the first of three straight home games) and the Texans (Week 15 @ Rams, Week 16 vs. Chad Henne).

Bad: Panthers - Brutal early on, the Panthers defense has rebounded with solid to strong outings in three of their past four games, but now will be without star LB Thomas Davis the rest of the way due to an ACL injury. Factor in their Week 14-16 opponents (Patriots, Vikings, Giants) and the Panthers D is not likely to be long for your roster.

*** Thursday Night Pick - San Francisco 20 (-3) Chicago 16