10 Important Draft Day Questions

Ah, behold March. What a wonderful time of year! March Madness is about to get underway and, more importantly, we're right in the heart of draft season. As 2008 drafts quickly switch from mock drafts to the real deal, the time for trial and error is over. As my inbox suggests, the readers want answers and they want them now. Every year there are a number of hot topics and draft day questions buzzing around fantasy circles. Here are 10 of the most common draft day questions I'm being asked and, more importantly, the answers!

Should I be worried about drafting Albert Pujols?
Yes. You should be worried and if you have not had your draft yet, here it is: Don't draft Pujols! I don't know if there is any part of Albert Pujols right arm that doesn't need fixing. What he ultimately needs is reconstructive elbow surgery, which has an 8 month recovery time. No doubt Pujols is a gamer, so he's going to try and tough it out; but when July comes along and the team isn't winning games, they will shut him down and opt for the surgery to have him healthy for the '09 campaign. What also worries me is the Cardinal's lack of production as a team. The Cardinals' line-up is just bad news. In more at-bats Pujols lost 20 runs and 34 RBI from the previous year, yet his average only dropped 4 points from .331 to .327. It's because of that line-up; there is seldom anyone on base when he hits and no one can consistently drive him home. There are just to many negatives surrounding Pujols this year for such a high pick. For me, the writing is on the wall. As great as he is, I won't touch Pujols this season.

What's the deal with Francisco Liriano and should I draft him?
Francisco Liriano was a sleeper in 2006 fantasy drafts. At the time, he was still relatively unknown and his role for the '06 season was still in question. The upside was obvious so I had the foresight to draft Liriano in the 18th round that year. Before blowing out his elbow, which shelved him for all of the 2007 season, he was lights out. He was pitching better than his then team mate Johan Santana. Liriano started 16 games before the injury. He went 11-3 with 112 strikeouts in 98.2 innings. His ERA as a starter was also a superb 1.92. I remember thinking that year that Liriano could arguably be the number 1 pitcher off the board in 2007 drafts. The reconstructive surgery on his elbow ended that. Now he is back and ready to go in 2008. We only had a small sample before the injury in '06, but boy did he look good! His current ADP is about the 8th round. If Liriano is available, in or around the eighth round, step up and get him. He has the potential to be a true fantasy ace at a bargain price. Liriano is being drafted higher and higher everyday. He's in camp and pitching really well and the fantasy world is noticing. In some drafts he will go as high as the 5th round.

Who is this year's best Japanese import, Fukudome or Kuroda?
It seems that every season there are a few players that come over from Japan to play in the world's best baseball league. Some have gone on to have HOF careers (Ichiro) and some have faded faster than Bobby Brown's hair (Irabu). This year the two players with the most hype surrounding them are Kosuke Fukudome, an outfielder for the Cubs, and Hiroki Kuroda, a starting pitcher for the Dodgers. I don't really see either of these guys setting the fantasy world on fire, but I would have to say that Fukudome has a greater upside. Kuroda is already 34 years old and has pitched a ton of innings in Japan. He is a workhorse, but won't be particularly strong in any category. I see him as no more than a #5 SP on your fantasy team. Fukudome has shown a knack for being able to get on base, posting an OBP of no lower then .400 in 4 of his last 5 seasons. The upside of Fukudome makes him this year's top Japanese import and he should start the year as your #4 OF with the potential to perform higher.

Should I wait on my catcher or go after V-Mart or Martin early?
A lot depends on the league you play in and the scoring system you use. In some scoring formats Martinez is certainly worthy of a 3rd round pick and Martin as a 4th round selection. This is especially true in a point-based, head-to-head format. Martinez and Martin are far and away tops at their position and the advantage that can be gained over your opponent can pay huge dividends on a weekly basis. There are a lot of fantasy veterans that strongly believe that you should never spend an early pick on your catcher. Much of that belief stems from the fact that catchers usually take a day off once a week. These two guys play much more than the ordinary catcher. Regardless, I don't like to put myself in a box with my draft day strategies where I will never do this or won't do that. I change my plans on a yearly basis and always keep my options open during the draft. This year I have decided to go after a couple of up and comers like Saltalamacchia, Soto, Ruiz, or Towles. I would rather spend that 3rd round pick on a guy like Carlos Lee or Mark Teixeira. However, if for some reason V-Mart is still available in round 5 when it's my turn, his name will be called. It's all about keeping your options open and acquiring value, folks.

Should I draft Harden, Prior, or The Big Unit?
I really hate to see Randy Johnson clumped in with these other two. The Big Unit in his hey day was fantasy gold and one of the greatest left-handers to ever pitch. Harden and Prior combined, in 12 big league seasons, have a mere 73 wins. If you subtract their best season, it leaves 44 wins in 10 seasons. It's ugly stuff dissecting their numbers. For now all 3 players are healthy (except Prior of course). Here is how they should be handled in 2008 drafts:

Mark Prior
Stay as far away from Prior on draft day as possible. He is still out until June. Watch his progress when he returns because he could be worth a waiver claim.

Rich Harden
Despite Harden's track record, he is still being drafted in the top 15 rounds (which is way to high for a guy with such a long history of arm trouble). On top of that, Oakland is in rebuild mode. Don't take the bait, let someone else draft Harden.

Randy Johnson
Johnson is the one worth targeting. If round 20 is approaching and The Big Unit is still on the board, there is still enough of an upside to draft Johnson. In limited work last season he still showed flashes of brilliance.

Should I punt the Saves category?
The quick answer is no, you actually shouldn't punt any category. When you punt a category it leaves you with a very small margin for error in the other categories. A fantasy baseball season is unpredictable and when freak things occur, you may be suddenly punting two categories. Soon after that it's a lost season. Let the seasoned fantasy vets try their luck with the punting strategy. To gain the benefits from a successful punting strategy you must be able to know exactly how to dominate a few other categories. Considering the way that closers can be found on the waiver wire year after year, it's much wiser to draft at least two low level closers and play the wire. That way you're still not using high picks on closers, but you're also not lying down completely either. You never know, you may stumble upon this year's Jose Valverde. A player that fits the bill this year is George Sherrill of the Orioles. Sherrill's current ADP is the 20th round of a 12 team league.