Top 10 Offensive Busts

by Rob Warner, Tuesday, March 11, 2008

As important as scouting out the promising undervalued potential stars that can be keepers for the next decade is, a championship owner will construct a preseason list of players that have major red flags that will cause them to be duds in 2008 and beyond. Age and injury risk are two factors that must be measured to determine players that make good candidates to nominate early in an auction (eat up other owner's budgets) or avoid in a snake draft because they'll go rounds higher than their actual 2008 value.

Preseason "over-hype" players are those that have a breakout year and become all the rage in the preseason. By wasting a high draft pick on these one year wonders without an established track record, they make you look like a fool by midseason.

Other factors to keep an eye on that could lead a player to under perform in 2008 include:

The dreaded "rookie sensation" - Many are hyped to be the "next big thing", only to fall prey to the pressures of the big leagues. (Votto, Bruce, Longoria)
Contract year players - If 2007 was a contract year, then players such as Torii Hunter may have performed over their head to ensure a big pay day (obviously not the case for Andruw Jones).
Players moving from small market to big market baseball (NY/BOS/LA) - might be overwhelmed by the spot light.

Here are my top 10 hitters that are destined to disappoint in 2008.

Carlos Delgado, 1B, New York Mets

He hits in one of the more pitcher friendly parks in all of baseball and at 35 years old with a chronic injury risk, I'd rather gamble on a break out year from an up and comer like Ryan Garko or Conor Jackson. Delgado is a prime example of career in free fall as his batting average, slugging percentage, and on-base percentage have declined since 2005. Although he is hitting in one of the more high octane offenses in all of baseball, the days of 30 homers and 90 RBIs are long gone and he's more likely to miss considerable time as the injuries continue to pile up (he might even give Moises Alou a run for most days on the Mets' DL in 2008).

Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati

Votto is a promising, young, hitter with plenty of upside (Ranked #21 by Baseball Prospectus heading into 2008). But the odds of him having a break out year in his first full season aren't good - especially when he plays for the Reds. Scott Hatteberg's hot spring training start and Dusty Baker's aversion to playing rookies could land Votto in the minors to start the season. Let another owner overpay for potential on draft day and if in a keeper league, you might get Votto for 50 cents on the dollar at the all star break.

B.J. Upton, 2B, Tampa Bay

Upton struck out a discouraging 33% of the time in 2007, so it's obvious he still is going through the growing pains of adjusting to big league pitching. He is extremely talented and his power/speed combo is unmatched at the 2nd base position. However, he is more suited to be selected in the fifth round, not the second round (where he's been selected in some preseason mock drafts). In 2008, you might be better off selecting a proven hitter like Brian Roberts or Robinson Cano and letting another owner overpay for Upton's potential.

Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston

Is he better in real life than in fantasy baseball? The reigning AL Rookie of the Year needed off season surgery to fix a broken hand and his production may drop in his second full season (learning curve theory). He should finish the season in the top10 in runs scored and provide a solid average, but his power potential and speed are limited. He's not a 20/20 threat and is likely to be overvalued on draft day because he hits in the Red Sox lineup. Dan Uggla or Kelly Johnson will likely give better overall production in 2008.

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